semiparametric statistics
DNA-SE: Towards Deep Neural-Nets Assisted Semiparametric Estimation
Liu, Qinshuo, Wang, Zixin, Li, Xi-An, Ji, Xinyao, Zhang, Lei, Liu, Lin, Liu, Zhonghua
Semiparametric statistics play a pivotal role in a wide range of domains, including but not limited to missing data, causal inference, and transfer learning, to name a few. In many settings, semiparametric theory leads to (nearly) statistically optimal procedures that yet involve numerically solving Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. Traditional numerical methods, such as polynomial or spline approximations, are difficult to scale to multi-dimensional problems. Alternatively, statisticians may choose to approximate the original integral equations by ones with closed-form solutions, resulting in computationally more efficient, but statistically suboptimal or even incorrect procedures. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel framework by formulating the semiparametric estimation problem as a bi-level optimization problem; and then we develop a scalable algorithm called Deep Neural-Nets Assisted Semiparametric Estimation (DNA-SE) by leveraging the universal approximation property of Deep Neural-Nets (DNN) to streamline semiparametric procedures. Through extensive numerical experiments and a real data analysis, we demonstrate the numerical and statistical advantages of $\dnase$ over traditional methods. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to bring DNN into semiparametric statistics as a numerical solver of integral equations in our proposed general framework.
A Free Lunch with Influence Functions? Improving Neural Network Estimates with Concepts from Semiparametric Statistics
Vowels, Matthew J., Akbari, Sina, Camgoz, Necati Cihan, Bowden, Richard
Parameter estimation in empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be sufficiently flexible to be able to adequately model real-world phenomena, and may yield biased estimates. Conversely, non-parametric approaches are flexible but do not readily facilitate statistical inference and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for Influence Functions (IFs) to (a) improve initial estimators without needing more data (b) increase model robustness and (c) facilitate statistical inference. We begin with a broad introduction to IFs, and propose a neural network method 'MultiNet', which seeks the diversity of an ensemble using a single architecture. We also introduce variants on the IF update step which we call 'MultiStep', and provide a comprehensive evaluation of different approaches. The improvements are found to be dataset dependent, indicating an interaction between the methods used and nature of the data generating process. Our experiments highlight the need for practitioners to check the consistency of their findings, potentially by undertaking multiple analyses with different combinations of estimators. We also show that it is possible to improve existing neural networks for `free', without needing more data, and without needing to retrain them.
Semiparametric Estimation and Inference on Structural Target Functions using Machine Learning and Influence Functions
Curth, Alicia, Alaa, Ahmed M., van der Schaar, Mihaela
We aim to construct a class of learning algorithms that are of practical value to applied researchers in fields such as biostatistics, epidemiology and econometrics, where the need to learn from incompletely observed information is ubiquitous. To do so, we propose a new framework for statistical machine learning, which we call 'IF-learning' due to its reliance on influence functions (IFs). To characterise the fundamental limits of what is achievable within this framework, we need to enable semiparametric estimation and inference on structural target parameters that are functions of continuous inputs arising as identifiable functionals from statistical models. Therefore, we introduce a pointwise IF to replace the true IF when it does not exist and propose learning its uncentered pointwise expected value from data. This allows us to give provable guarantees, leveraging existing general results from statistics. Our framework is problem- and model-agnostic and can be used to estimate a broad variety of target parameters of interest in applied statistics: we can consider any target function for which an IF of a population-averaged version exists in analytic form. Throughout, we put particular focus on so-called coarsening at random/doubly robust problems with partially unobserved information. This includes problems such as treatment effect estimation and inference in the presence of missing outcome data. Within this framework, we then propose two general learning algorithms that leverage ideas from the theoretical analysis: the 'IF-learner' which relies on large samples and outputs entire target functions without confidence bands, and the 'Group-IF-learner', which outputs only approximations to a function but can give confidence estimates if sufficient information on coarsening mechanisms is available. We close with a simulation study on inferring treatment effects.